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Michigan State brings all the intangibles you'd expect from a powerhouse program — the household name, the Big Ten pedigree, a legendary coach in Tom Izzo, and deep tournament experience. That combination alone makes them the natural favorite in most matchups, and their solid 23-10-1 record against the spread (ATS) this season backs that up.
But make no mistake — this betting line feels a bit too generous toward the Spartans and far too dismissive of what New Mexico brings to the table. The Lobos aren’t just a feel-good mid-major story; they’re a legitimate threat with the numbers to back it up. Ranked inside the top 30 nationally in scoring offense, New Mexico is one of the more balanced and efficient offensive teams still dancing.
In their opening-round victory, the Lobos dismantled Marquette — a team with a strong offensive resume — while entering as 4.5-point underdogs. Not only did they cover with ease, but they also held the Golden Eagles to just 41% shooting from the floor. That defensive intensity, combined with their explosive scoring capability, gives them the tools to hang with — and potentially knock off — a team like Michigan State.
While New Mexico hasn’t been a cover machine recently, especially down the stretch, this isn't a team just happy to be part of the tournament field. They’re here to win. Michigan State, for all its strengths, has been prone to prolonged cold spells on offense — and against a team as capable as the Lobos, that could be a recipe for trouble. Look for New Mexico to hang tough throughout and potentially pull off another surprise. This matchup is much closer than the line suggests. Take New Mexico ATS
But make no mistake — this betting line feels a bit too generous toward the Spartans and far too dismissive of what New Mexico brings to the table. The Lobos aren’t just a feel-good mid-major story; they’re a legitimate threat with the numbers to back it up. Ranked inside the top 30 nationally in scoring offense, New Mexico is one of the more balanced and efficient offensive teams still dancing.
In their opening-round victory, the Lobos dismantled Marquette — a team with a strong offensive resume — while entering as 4.5-point underdogs. Not only did they cover with ease, but they also held the Golden Eagles to just 41% shooting from the floor. That defensive intensity, combined with their explosive scoring capability, gives them the tools to hang with — and potentially knock off — a team like Michigan State.
While New Mexico hasn’t been a cover machine recently, especially down the stretch, this isn't a team just happy to be part of the tournament field. They’re here to win. Michigan State, for all its strengths, has been prone to prolonged cold spells on offense — and against a team as capable as the Lobos, that could be a recipe for trouble. Look for New Mexico to hang tough throughout and potentially pull off another surprise. This matchup is much closer than the line suggests. Take New Mexico ATS
NCAA Basketball Picks
Sunday, March 23rd 2025 8:55 PM
Finished
NCAA Basketball Picks
Sunday, March 23rd 2025 8:55 PM
Finished
NCAA Basketball Cappers Picks for New Mexico vs Michigan State with Cappers winnings percentage over 55% for the last 7 days:
Skip Snow 63 % Skip Snow 63 % Jesse Schule 57 % Bruce Marshall 55 % Michael Briggs 64 % Adam Trigger 56 % Fat Jack 58 % Your Daily Capper 63 % Executive 80 %
Spread
Money
Total
New Mexico
Michigan State SPREAD
New Mexico 6.5 (-110) AVG SPREAD W%: 50 ROI: -5
Jonathan Von Tobel
W%: 55
ROI: 4
Greg Peterson
W%: 49
ROI: -7
Jimmy Boyd
W%: 51
ROI: -2
Michael Briggs
W%: 51
ROI: -2
Josh Schonwald
W%: 49
ROI: -5
Trent Pruitt
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Sam Avellone
W%: 49
ROI: -7
Randy Chambers
W%: 48
ROI: -7
Aengus Moorehead
W%: 48
ROI: -6
Sean Murphy
W%: 52
ROI: -1
Craig Trapp
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Brad Francis
W%: 51
ROI: -7
Adam Trigger
W%: 47
ROI: -14
Fat Jack
W%: 53
ROI: 1
Tommy G
W%: 52
ROI: -8
Bob Bafle
W%: 50
ROI: -4
Wayne Root
W%: 45
ROI: -14
Ian Cameron
W%: 53
ROI: 1
John Martin
W%: 48
ROI: -8
Bryan Power
W%: 49
ROI: -8
Bob Konarski (BurghBets)
W%: 50
ROI: -4
SPREAD
Michigan State -6.5 (-110) AVG SPREAD W%: 50 ROI: -6
David Dineen
W%: 57
ROI: 8
Skip Snow
W%: 47
ROI: -11
Action Bet Covers
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Jesse Schule
W%: 50
ROI: -10
Executive
W%: 50
ROI: -7
ProSportsPicks
W%: 50
ROI: -11
Micah Roberts
W%: 48
ROI: -9
Bruce Marshall
W%: 48
ROI: -6
MONEY
New Mexico 240
MONEY
Michigan State -300 AVG MONEY W%: 54 ROI: -4
Your Daily Capper
W%: 56
ROI: -3
Marco D'Angelo
W%: 52
ROI: -5
TOTAL
UNDER 149.0 (-107)
AVG UNDER W%: 51 ROI: -4
Skip Snow
W%: 47
ROI: -11
David Picks and parlays
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Trent Pruitt
W%: 49
ROI: -6
Oliver Zivic
W%: 57
ROI: 8
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